Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 3.334379 3.987932 4.716729 5.586905 6.594686 7.722094 9.075661
2025-04-27 2.363488 3.230973 4.311948 5.744609 7.578441 9.830631 12.787233
2025-05-04 1.795878 2.755507 4.069567 5.968108 8.602173 12.083202 16.977628
2025-05-11 1.360233 2.317244 3.742748 5.963249 9.263129 13.899609 20.796621
2025-05-18 1.014051 1.907284 3.346392 5.747601 9.542621 15.170363 23.961460
2025-05-25 0.754336 1.560984 2.961275 5.452481 9.618289 16.104074 26.686491
2025-06-01 0.598930 1.352597 2.752082 5.387614 10.017298 17.533865 30.261291
2025-06-08 0.480176 1.179977 2.565670 5.318381 10.379393 18.917139 33.866735
2025-06-15 0.426417 1.125642 2.586735 5.620091 11.408225 21.479083 39.592540
2025-06-22 0.357141 1.017503 2.477867 5.651943 11.944366 23.242529 44.121442
2025-06-29 0.298325 0.916835 2.362885 5.648548 12.404749 24.903003 48.596171
2025-07-06 0.249038 0.825293 2.248280 5.623926 12.813090 26.495129 53.064650
2025-07-13 0.233148 0.821635 2.340372 6.069154 14.233624 30.121295 61.558175
2025-07-20 0.204384 0.772997 2.315922 6.253402 15.145361 32.879800 68.702518
2025-07-27 0.182345 0.737807 2.318172 6.499539 16.216242 36.038839 76.841657
2025-08-03 0.153642 0.670978 2.222903 6.496237 16.742522 38.165604 83.170530
2025-08-10 0.122417 0.582840 2.048127 6.264417 16.725355 39.187015 87.419614
2025-08-17 0.094952 0.495939 1.854280 5.946316 16.463084 39.667436 90.617041
2025-08-24 0.078716 0.446086 1.759862 5.876404 16.777285 41.386492 96.437439
2025-08-31 0.065189 0.401225 1.669740 5.801721 17.068014 43.074001 102.305979
2025-09-07 0.060868 0.397172 1.715633 6.127256 18.400031 47.162815 113.480434
2025-09-14 0.052300 0.367955 1.666549 6.161617 18.985338 49.613904 121.314959
2025-09-21 0.044483 0.338347 1.608339 6.157956 19.469592 51.870226 128.874022